2024 Cyberthreat predictions: Is it time to worry about quantum computing?
The potential security risks and rewards of artificial intelligence (AI) have for years cast a long shadow across cybersecurity predictions. The release of ChatGPT in November 2022 propelled AI, and generative AI in particular, into the global spotlight, raising awareness of the urgent need to address its security impact. Will quantum computing take a similar trajectory?
Quantum computing, like AI, is a transformational technology. One of the most notable advantages it offers is speed, super-fast computational processing that will underpin everything from particle physics research to better weather forecasting, traffic optimization, financial modeling, cybersecurity — and more. It will also make it easier for threat actors to break encryption.
In November 2022, the U.S. government introduced the Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Awareness Act. If governments are preparing, should we be too?
Barracuda asked the professionals who work on the security frontline whether it’s time for organizations and the cybersecurity industry to focus on quantum computing. This is what they had to say.
Perspectives on quantum computing
Sheila Hara, Senior Director, Product Management, Email Protection: While quantum computing is not an immediate threat to current security measures, it’s important to proactively consider its potential impact and take steps to prepare for a future where quantum capabilities may challenge existing cryptographic protections. Quantum computers have the theoretical capability to break widely used encryption algorithms, such as RSA and ECC, through a process known as Shor’s algorithm. This means that sensitive data encrypted with these algorithms could potentially be decrypted by a quantum computer. Confidential information, including personal data, financial transactions, and sensitive communications, could be at risk if encryption methods are compromised by quantum computing. The transition from current cryptographic standards to quantum-resistant standards will take time and careful planning. Organizations need to start considering this transition to ensure the security of their data in the future.
Adam Khan, VP Global Security Operations: While quantum computing presents a potential threat to cybersecurity due to its ability to break current encryption algorithms, the timeline for when it will become a significant concern is uncertain and will depend on the progress in quantum computing technology and the development of quantum-resistant cryptographic algorithms.
Stefan Schachinger, Senior Product Manager, IoT: Companies should live security as an ongoing process. Begin with the low-hanging fruit, continuously improve, and don’t attempt to achieve 100% overnight. If projects become too big, too complicated, or too expensive, they fail, and there is no benefit. So, begin small and then scale. The ones who think they have done everything to protect themselves against the current threats should worry about quantum computing, but for the vast majority of organizations there are other tasks to do first. At the moment, the use of quantum computing is still very limited, and it’s definitely not a mainstream technology. But we should keep it in mind because one day that's going to change.
Emre Tezisci, Product Marketing Manager, Zero Trust: In my opinion, it’s not that easy for threat actors to get access to such technologies. First, they require identification. Second, they are expensive. There are many cheaper and simpler options to breach companies.
Rohit Aradhya, VP and Managing Director, Engineering: Quantum computing capability is an impending threat for the coming years. It is expected that quantum computing will help break asymmetric encryption solutions that base their security on integer factorization or discrete logarithms. However, the practical viability of using quantum resources to impact the security of businesses on a large scale is still few years away. Also, large-scale research and remedial measures are in discussion on how to make security products/solutions address threats emanating from quantum computing abilities. We believe it is something to look out for in the near future, but probably not in 2024.
Jesus Cordero, Director, Systems Engineering, SASE and Cloud: It has been always time to think about it. It will take a while for all of us to migrate our systems to post-quantum cryptography to create resilient systems against attacks from quantum computers. The Quantum Computing Cybersecurity Preparedness Act from 2022 is an initiative worth following.
Mark Lukie, Director of Solution Architects, APAC: Yes, it is time to think about quantum computing from a security perspective, but it is not time to worry. Quantum computers are still in their early stages of development, and we have time to prepare for their arrival. There are several things that organizations and individuals can do to mitigate the security risks associated with quantum computing, such as using post-quantum cryptography algorithms, quantum key distribution, and segmenting networks and systems. We can also educate employees about cybersecurity best practices to help reduce the risk of phishing attacks and other social engineering attacks. While quantum computing poses some security risks, it also has the potential to revolutionize many industries, including cybersecurity. For example, quantum computing could be used to develop new encryption algorithms that are even more secure than the ones we use today.
Stefan van der Wal, Consulting Solutions Architect, Application Security, EMEA: As is traditional with every security question, this will be addressed once it’s already too late. It is good to think about a corporate strategy for when it arrives, especially because encryption will, in large parts, become invalid as this technology matures.
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